In 2019, there was a record heat in the most European countries, which greatly contributed to sales of air conditioners. But in Russia the situation was different. After the temperature exceeded the norm in March-June, the record cold came in July and August.
Let us consider the situation in more detail for two key VAC markets in Russia: Moscow and Krasnodar (where the situation was typical for the south of the country).
In Moscow, air conditioners are usually turned on at daytime temperatures above + 25 ° C. The most of these days were within the period from May 26 to June 25. If we take night temperatures, then only once during the whole year the temperature by midnight was not lower than + 20 ° C. That is, it was comfortable to sleep all summer without air conditioning. And in the daytime it was required mainly in May and June.
Nevertheless, these two months provided the Moscow market with an increase in sales compared to 2018. Much of the growth was due to the need to replace previously installed equipment, which provoked an early start to the season. When the fact of a malfunction of the air conditioner is revealed in May, they try not to postpone the problem until next year. Who knows what the summer will be like?
In the south of the country, the situation developed a little differently. In Rostov or Krasnodar (cities in the south of Russia), air conditioners are turned on at daytime temperatures above + 30 ° C, and real demand begins when nighttime temperatures rise above + 25 ° C. The second half of 2019 was tight – the temperature above + 25 ° C was only within 8 nights while an average annual rate is 24 nights! That is, 3 times lower than normal. The number of days with temperatures above + 30 ° C was 55 (with a norm of 59).
The reason is that the heat occurred in the first summer month, when the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures is maximum. The land, ponds and the buildings themselves have not yet warmed up, and at night you can sleep comfortably without air conditioning.
Warm nights were at the very end of June, but they did not form a heat wave at the end of August as well, as the relevance of buying an air conditioner tends to zero in August.
As a result, in two key markets of the Russian Federation, the dynamics of sales was multidirectional. In Moscow – an increase, in the south - a drop in sales.
Demand for inverter, semi-industrial and multi-split systems in 2019 increased. This is due to the growth of the premium housing segment and the need to replace equipment in the commercial sector.
But the coronavirus epidemic made some adjustments to the estimates. Its beginning was at the time of the holidays, dedicated to the Chinese New Year. As a result, a substantial part of the workers left their places of work in their small homeland and were unable to return due to quarantine. As a result, some enterprises could not resume work on time. This threatens delays in the supply of air conditioners in 2020. At the same time, the trend for market growth due to an increase in the number of replacements continued, plus deferred demand formed in most regions. These two facts will cause a stable demand in VAC equipment in Russia.